Beyond the Random Walk

Portfolio 1: Industry Momentum Trading Strategy

Vijay Singal — Sun, 16 Nov 2008 20:25:02 +0000

Portfolio 1 will be invested on November 17, 2008 and divested on December 22, 2008. The 5 week period ensures that there are no trading costs through Fidelity. Fidelity charges a redemption fee on these funds if they are held for less than 30 days. Other details are given in earlier posts.

The funds and the allocation for portfolio 1 are given below.

Portfolio 5: Industry Momentum Trading Strategy

Vijay Singal — Sun, 09 Nov 2008 18:19:36 +0000

I apologize for missing the last few weeks. I was traveling and did not realize that there continues to be sufficient interest in this blog in spite of market volatility. I will fill in the previous portfolios in the next few weeks just for the sake of completeness. If it means any thing to you, I have not altered my strategy at all and continue to invest the way I have always done: follow this momentum strategy.

Portfolio 5 will be invested on November 10, 2008 and divested on December 15, 2008. The 5 week period ensures that there are no trading costs through Fidelity. Fidelity charges a redemption fee on these funds if they are held for less than 30 days. Other details are given in earlier posts.

The funds and the allocation for portfolio 5 are given below.

Portfolio 3: Industry Momentum Trading Strategy

Vijay Singal — Sun, 21 Sep 2008 15:32:45 +0000

Portfolio 3 will be invested on September 22, 2008 and divested on October 27, 2008. The 5 week period ensures that there are no trading costs through Fidelity. Fidelity charges a redemption fee on these funds if they are held for less than 30 days. Other details are given in earlier posts.

The funds and the allocation for portfolio 3 are given below.

Portfolio 2: Industry Momentum Trading Strategy

Vijay Singal — Sun, 21 Sep 2008 15:24:42 +0000

Portfolio 2 will be invested on September 15, 2008 and divested on October 20, 2008. The 5 week period ensures that there are no trading costs through Fidelity. Fidelity charges a redemption fee on these funds if they are held for less than 30 days. Other details are given in earlier posts.

The funds and the allocation for portfolio 2 are given below.

Performance as of September 9, 2008

Vijay Singal — Sun, 14 Sep 2008 03:09:24 +0000

The table below shows the performance of each portfolio ending September 9, 2008 relative to the S&P 500. Total returns including distributions are reported. SPY return including dividends is the proxy for S&P 500.

Four of the five portfolios have done well relative to the S&P 500 in the last 4 weeks (see the bottom row of the table). Note that each portfolio is held for 5 weeks in order to avoid any redemption fees. Transaction fees are zero for all Fidelity funds that are traded on the Fidelity web site when held for 30 days.

Only one of five portfolios underperformed marginally, by 0.20%. The other 4 portfolios did better than the S&P 500 over the last 4 weeks with the overperformance ranging between 0.70% and 3.40%. On the other hand, three portfolios underperformed when a complete 5 week period is considered.

Combined with the earlier 5-week periods, the portfolios continue to outperform the S&P 500.

Portfolio 1: Industry Momentum Trading Strategy

Vijay Singal — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 19:47:03 +0000

This is Portfolio 1 that will be invested on September 8, 2008 and divested on October 13, 2008. The 5 week period ensures that there are no trading costs through Fidelity. Fidelity charges a redemption fee on these funds if they are held for less than 30 days.