Beyond the Random Walk

A not so random walk through the world of finance.

About the Book

The most complete book yet written on stock market anomalies, including ten anomalies that are most promising

In an efficient market, all stocks should be valued at a price that is consistent with available information. But as financial expert Vijay Singal, Ph.D., CFA, points out, there are circumstances under which certain stocks sell at a price higher or lower than the right price. In Beyond the Random Walk, Singal discusses ten such anomalous prices and shows how investors might–or might not–be able to exploit these situations for profit.

The author distills several decades of academic research into a focused discussion of market anomalies that is both accessible and useful to people with varied backgrounds. Past empirical evidence is supplemented with author’s own research using more recent data. Anomalies covered include the “December Effect,” “Momentum in Industry Stocks,” “S&P 500 Index Changes,” “Trading by Insiders,” and “Merger Arbitrage.” In each chapter, the author describes the particular anomaly, explains how it occurs, shows ways to take advantage of the anomaly, and highlights the risks involved. We learn, for example, that shares of stocks that have appreciated in recent months become scarce in late December, because investors wait until January before they sell (to postpone payment of taxes on profits). This scarcity drives the price up–the “December Effect”–and smart buyers can make the equivalent of 75% annual return on a five-day investment. Each chapter includes suggestions for further reading as well as tables and graphs that support the discussion. The book concludes with a preview of many other interesting anomalies and a section on how investor behavior might influence prices.

2 Responses to “About the Book”

  1. Aaron Arpi said

    Dear Sir,

    I bought a copy of the book and loved it. I have 2 questions that the book provoked:

    first, does your research indicate that the opportunities for NAV price arbitrage of mutual funds still exist today in 2008 after some regulatory actions were taken in 2003.

    And secondly, when I look at historical prices of NAVs for the five funds shown in the table on page 126, I noticed large drops in NAVs for the funds on the same day as large drops in the S&P, as well as large rises on the same day as large S&P rises. The correlation to the previous day’s S&P result as the book mentioned had me expecting to see these large rises and falls offset by one day, but on the data page for Yahoo that wasn’t the case. Is this simply the case of Yahoo skewing the NAV attribution by 1 calendar day? I’m a little bit confused as to why it is shown this way?

    Thanks for the help,
    Aaron Arpi
    aaron_arpi@yahoo.com

  2. Vijay Singal said

    Hi Aaron:

    Thank you for your questions and interest in my work. When you get a chance you may also want to post a comment on amazon.com. Here are my answers to your questions:

    1. Yes, the opportunities continue to exist because the mutual fund industry has done nothing to address the mispricing issue. The introduction of redemption fees reduces the number of profitable trades, but the big profitable trades still exist. Please see pages 127-129 in the book.

    2. The S&P changes and the changes in NAVs are generally offset by one day but that does not happen all the time. Please send me more details about the funds and the dates and I can work through the numbers with you.

    Vijay

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

 
Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.